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Mid Spring Check Up - Round Up!

5/31/2016

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​June is here and that means we have two full months of spring market data to pour through.  Lucky for you that you have a houseguy to help you break all this info down and tell you want it all means.  Let's start with the number of closings! 

The first line of the chart refers to Triangle MLS or "TMLS".  This is the real estate database for 16 counties in our area - Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Harnett, Johnston, Lee, Nash, Orange, Person, Vance, Wake, and Warren.  It a good metric for how the entire region is doing.

Closings

2015

2016

Change

TMLS

6131

6475

+5.6%

Triangle

4784

4976

+4%

Wake

3458

3544

+2.5%

Durham

818

871

+6.5%

Orange

321

364

+11.8%

Chatham

187

197

+5.3%

​The number of closings sets the stage for how we interpret the rest of the the info.  If the stats below are good while the number of closings increased then that's good news!  It means the market can support that level of activity.  With that in mind, remember Orange County's increase in closings.  12% is way outside the regional norm.

Days on Market

2015

2016

Change

TMLS

61

51

-16.4%

Triangle

53

54

-17%

Wake

50

40

-20%

Durham

51

40

-21.2%

Orange

67

68

+1.5%

Chatham

106

78

-26%

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but the shorter the days on market, the hotter the real estate market is.  Every area around the Triangle saw steep declines compared to last year - except one, which actually ticked up a bit. ​

Average Sales Price

2015

2016

Change

TMLS

$257,027

$272,551

6%

Triangle

$280,129

$297,889

6.3%

Wake

$286,555

$306,118

6.8%

Durham

$216,559

$228,894

6%

Orange

$339,290

$344,868

1.6%

Chatham

$337,825

$368,086

8.2%

Of course, the best way to know your home's value and how it is appreciating is to compare it to similar homes in the area - but the average sales price gives you a good idea to what you could expect to see in your home's value this year compared to last.  You can see a very healthy increase of 6-8% across the board - except in one county.

Sales to List Ratio

2015

2016

Change

TMLS

98.3

101

+2.7

Triangle

98.4

100.2

+1.8

Wake

98.6

101

+2.4

Durham

98.1

99.2

+1.1

Orange

97.4

98

+0.6

Chatham

98.5

98.7

+0.2

​The best direct gauge of demand is the sales to list ratio.  It shows you what you could expect to actually receive at closing.  For example, if your home was listed for $250,000 and you closed for $245,000 - that's a respectable 98%.  

Those 101s you see up there aren't typos.  So far, the average sales price in Raleigh (which is so big it affects the stats of the entire region.  Your typical home in Raleigh has been going for 101% of list price and that means that $250,000 home has actually sold for $252,500.  Many homes around Apex and Cary are in the same boat with multiple offers and no contingencies.  Not bad!  All the sub-markets around have seen good numbers in this regard.

Total Volume

2015

2016

Change

TMLS

$1,575,833,306

$1,764,769,875

+12%

Triangle

$1,340,138,293

$1,482,297,823

+10.6%

Wake

$990,907,195

$1,084,885,063

+9.5%

Durham

$177,145,459

$199,367,461

+12.5%

Orange

$108,912,328

$125,532,184

+15.3%

Chatham

$63,173,311

$72,513,115

+14.8%

​Finally, the sales volume.  This is just the total amount spent in real estate this year and is really presented for bragging rights.   

Generally great news and only the Orange County numbers gives me some pause.  I suspect that the demand around Chapel Hill is being siphoned off to new neighborhoods around Chatham County like Westfalls and Briar Chapel.   ​
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