Mid Spring Check Up - Round Up!

​June is here and that means we have two full months of spring market data to pour through.  Lucky for you that you have a houseguy to help you break all this info down and tell you want it all means.  Let's start with the number of closings! 

The first line of the chart refers to Triangle MLS or "TMLS".  This is the real estate database for 16 counties in our area - Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Harnett, Johnston, Lee, Nash, Orange, Person, Vance, Wake, and Warren.  It a good metric for how the entire region is doing.

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Closings	2015	2016	Change
TMLS	6131	6475	+5.6%
Triangle	4784	4976	+4%
Wake	3458	3544	+2.5%
Durham	818	871	+6.5%
Orange	321	364	+11.8%
Chatham	187	197	+5.3%

​The number of closings sets the stage for how we interpret the rest of the the info.  If the stats below are good while the number of closings increased then that's good news!  It means the market can support that level of activity.  With that in mind, remember Orange County's increase in closings.  12% is way outside the regional norm.

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Days on Market	2015	2016	Change
TMLS	61	51	-16.4%
Triangle	53	54	-17%
Wake	50	40	-20%
Durham	51	40	-21.2%
Orange	67	68	+1.5%
Chatham	106	78	-26%

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but the shorter the days on market, the hotter the real estate market is.  Every area around the Triangle saw steep declines compared to last year - except one, which actually ticked up a bit. ​

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Average Sales Price	2015	2016	Change
TMLS	$257,027	$272,551	6%
Triangle	$280,129	$297,889	6.3%
Wake	$286,555	$306,118	6.8%
Durham	$216,559	$228,894	6%
Orange	$339,290	$344,868	1.6%
Chatham	$337,825	$368,086	8.2%

Of course, the best way to know your home's value and how it is appreciating is to compare it to similar homes in the area - but the average sales price gives you a good idea to what you could expect to see in your home's value this year compared to last.  You can see a very healthy increase of 6-8% across the board - except in one county.

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Sales to List Ratio	2015	2016	Change
TMLS	98.3	101	+2.7
Triangle	98.4	100.2	+1.8
Wake	98.6	101	+2.4
Durham	98.1	99.2	+1.1
Orange	97.4	98	+0.6
Chatham	98.5	98.7	+0.2

​The best direct gauge of demand is the sales to list ratio.  It shows you what you could expect to actually receive at closing.  For example, if your home was listed for $250,000 and you closed for $245,000 - that's a respectable 98%.  

Those 101s you see up there aren't typos.  So far, the average sales price in Raleigh (which is so big it affects the stats of the entire region.  Your typical home in Raleigh has been going for 101% of list price and that means that $250,000 home has actually sold for $252,500.  Many homes around Apex and Cary are in the same boat with multiple offers and no contingencies.  Not bad!  All the sub-markets around have seen good numbers in this regard.

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Total Volume	2015	2016	Change
TMLS	$1,575,833,306	$1,764,769,875	+12%
Triangle	$1,340,138,293	$1,482,297,823	+10.6%
Wake	$990,907,195	$1,084,885,063	+9.5%
Durham	$177,145,459	$199,367,461	+12.5%
Orange	$108,912,328	$125,532,184	+15.3%
Chatham	$63,173,311	$72,513,115	+14.8%

​Finally, the sales volume.  This is just the total amount spent in real estate this year and is really presented for bragging rights.   

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Generally great news and only the Orange County numbers gives me some pause.  I suspect that the demand around Chapel Hill is being siphoned off to new neighborhoods around Chatham County like Westfalls and Briar Chapel.   ​